Player props can be useful in a variety of ways — from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we’re going to focus on the former.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
NBA Prop Bets
On the season, Collins is netting 22.3 combined points and rebounds (PR) each game, a bit above where his PR line sits for tonight’s matchup against the Phoenix Suns.
As of late, Collins has been a high-volume shooter and is seeing intriguing court time. He has eclipsed 21.5 PR in eight straight games, averaging 26.9 PR in that span.
The Suns by no means have a rollover and die defense, but they could feed into Collins’ hand in this one. Phoenix is surrendering the 10th-most paint points per game to centers. Collins nets 57.5% of his points in the paint and, historically, takes advantage of weak interiors.
These teams have met up on three occasions this season — Collins averaged 25.7 PR in those games (21.0 PR, 29.0 PR, and 27.0 PR performances).
This will create some depth issues for Utah in tonight’s game, and I’m most interested in how Olynyk’s absence could affect Collins.
Olynyk served as Utah’s backup big man and was playing 20.4 minutes per game this season. When sharing the court with Olynyk, Collins was accumulating just 14.2 PR per 36 minutes. But with Olynyk on the bench, Collins has been averaging a whopping 28.9 PR per 36 minutes. I’m quite bullish on this over.
Green is averaging 15.3 PR per game this season. These -111 odds imply a 52.6% probability for the over to hit, but in reality, Green is surpassing 13.5 PR at a 66.7% rate this year.
And if we take out the three games in which he was ejected — I have temporary faith that the controversy-prone Green is committed to antics-less basketball — he is clearing 13.5 PR at a towering 76.2% clip this season.
Add in a matchup against Indiana, and it seems this line is set too low. The Pacers are surrendering the most points and the eighth-most rebounds to power forwards per game.
Indiana plays at the second-fastest pace in the league, which tends to favor quick, interior scoring. Green nets 47.7% of his points in the paint and should be able to exploit Indiana’s defense, which is letting up more paint points than any other team in the NBA.
This matchup looks to be one of the more exciting games on tonight’s slate, and I think Green’s PR prop is scorching with value. I’d even consider targeting the alt markets for Green. You can get Draymond Green Over 14.5 PR at +120 and Green Over 15.5 PR at +162.
Giannis is averaging 42.6 PR this season. The -104 odds on this prop suggest a 50.98% probability, but Giannis is recording under 44.5 PR in 63.3% of his games this season.
As one of the best players in the league, he is prone to monstrous outings. But the T-Wolves are the best defensive team in basketball, and I think they should prove to be limiting in this one.
Minnesota is letting up fewer points (107.1) and fewer rebounds (40.4) per game than any other team in the Association. They are playing at the league’s fifth-slowest pace and own the best defensive rating. The fast-paced Bucks could get bogged down tonight.
Giannis relies on the paint to score 66.5% of his points. Minnesota is surrendering the second-fewest paint points per game. And while 23.8% of the Greek Freak’s points are received at the foul line, the T-Wolves are letting up the seventh-fewest free-throw attempts per game.
Giannis will draw a defensive matchup from Rudy Gobert, the chalk to take home this season’s Defensive Player of the Year award (-700 odds via FanDuel Sportsbook). Gobert ranks second in the entire NBA in defensive win shares and should look to limit Giannis in what will be the first matchup between these teams this season.
Plus, the T-Wolves are drawing the fifth-most fouls per game. Giannis commits 3.1 fouls per game (most on Bucks; 17th-most in the NBA), so he could run into some foul trouble tonight.
There is one caveat with this prop — Damian Lillard (ankle) is questionable for tonight’s contest. The market is operating under the assumption that Lillard will suit up, which means Giannis’ 44.5 PR line is reflective of a game alongside Lillard. I’m keen on this under so long as Lillard plays, so I think it’s best to wait for confirmation on his status before targeting this prop.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.