Monday, March 4, 2024

Cowboys vs Seahawks Best Bets: Picks & Props for Thursday Night Football

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Cowboys vs Seahawks Best Bets

NFL Week 13 opens with our Cowboys vs. Seahawks best bets for a matchup of teams headed in opposite directions. While Dallas has been dominant of late, especially at home, Seattle is trending downward. After a blowout loss at home to the 49ers, the Seahawks will now try to get right against the Cowboys.

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By John LanFranca

The Cowboys have averaged over 40 points per game on their home turf this year. Obviously, the surprisingly aggressive approach of this offense combined with the red-hot play of Dak Prescott is the main culprit for the surge of the Cowboys, but that is not the real reason we have to back Dallas at home.

Geno Smith’s passer rating under pressure this season is 69.4. Needless to say, he struggles without a clean pocket, and it’s very unlikely he will get many opportunities to sit in the pocket without duress on Thursday. The Cowboys defense is number one in pressure rate this season and has become one of the most opportunistic defenses in football.

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Over the past seven weeks, the Seahawks offense ranks in the bottom three of the league in both three-and-out percentage on offense as well as touchdown-per-possession rate. Smith cannot push the ball downfield as often as he did in 2022, and is averaging only 5.1 yards per attempt under pressure.

Everything is lining up here for another Cowboys home blowout. On the season they are winning by 29 points per game on average in Jerry world. I’d bet Dallas up to -9.5 on Thursday night.

Pick: Cowboys -8.5 (-110)

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By Grant Neiffer

I know this is a tough matchup and that Smith hasn’t been great this season, but this line is too low.

RB Kenneth Walker isn’t expected to play and the Seahawks will likely be forced to pass the ball plenty in a potential negative game script as 8.5-point underdogs. The Cowboys have allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game this season, but that number is misleading given they’ve faced the likes of Tommy DeVito, Bryce Young, Mac Jones, Joshua Dobbs, Zach Wilson and Daniel Jones.

Playing in a dome should help Smith, who’s averaging 234 passing yards per game this season after averaging over 250 last season.

I have Smith projected a full 15 yards over this number and would hit it all the way up to 228.5.

Pick: Geno Smith Over 222.5 Passing Yards (-113)

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By Ricky Henne

Brandin Cooks’ transformation from invisible afterthought to explosive playmaker has flown under the radar. He’s made several eye-popping plays of late, but I’ll admit even I didn’t realize to what extent until diving into the numbers.

Cooks has a reception of over 20 yards in seven of 10 games, including four of the Cowboys’ last five. Not only that, but a whopping eight of his 20 catches in those five games have exceeded the 19.5-yard threshold (40%). Three have gone for 25 yards, while the others have gone for 22, 31, 32, 34 and 37.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks have been susceptible to explosive plays in the passing game all year, including five in last week’s loss to the 49ers. They have the fourth-worst DVOA against No. 2 WRs, which Cooks certainly is behind CeeDee Lamb.

The stars seem to be aligned for Cooks to bust out at least one explosive catch against Seattle, so I’m a big fan of this prop. I was able to bet 19.5 on Wednesday afternoon, and I would not play it above 20.5.

Pick: Brandin Cooks Longest Reception Over 20.5 Yards (-110)

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By Matt Trebby

Here’s what seems to be the trend for this bet with Prescott: If the Cowboys blow out their opponent or win comfortably, chances are he’s going under 2.5 rush attempts. In the Cowboys’ seven wins by double-digit points, Prescott has gone under this total five times.

I don’t see this game as a pretty one for Seattle. The Seahawks have been trending downward in a big way over the past month, and the Cowboys have proven to be an unstoppable force at home this season. Dallas is 5-0 in Arlington, and their closest margin of victory in those games is 20.

Prescott has been so efficient and effective that he hasn’t had to rely on his legs. The Cowboys offensive line is thriving, and Tony Pollard has averaged more than five yards per carry in back-to-back games.

In expecting a comfortable Cowboys win, I’m expecting a comfortable night for Prescott in the pocket. I’d play this one to -110.

Pick: Dak Prescott Under 3.5 Rush Attempts (+105)

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