Heat vs. Knicks Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets - Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Julius Randle’s New York Knicks (42-31) are just 2-point underdogs in Wednesday’s matchup with Bam Adebayo and the Miami Heat (39-34). A point total of 220.5 has been set for the game.

Heat vs. Knicks Odds

Heat odds to win: -129
Knicks odds to win: +109
Spread: Heat (-2)
Total: 220.5

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Game Time and Information

When: Wednesday, March 22, 2023 at 7:30 PM ET
Where: FTX Arena in Miami, Florida
TV: BSSUN and MSG

Who Will Win Heat vs. Knicks?

Heat and Knicks Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

The Heat have a 13-29-4 record against the spread this season when favored by 2 points or more.

The Knicks are 19-12-1 against the spread when an underdog by 2 points or more this year.

The Heat and the Knicks combine to average 3.9 more points per game than the over/under of 220.5 set for this game.

Opponents of the two teams average a combined 1.6 more points per game, 222.1, than this matchup’s total of 220.5 points.

The Heat’s average point total in outings this year is 218.5, two points below the over/under in this game.

The average total for New York’s games this year is 7.5 more points than the point total of 220.5 in this outing.

Miami is 26-43-4 against the spread this season.

The Knicks’ ATS record is 41-31-1 this year.

Heat Stats & Insights

The Heat score 109 points per game (30th in the NBA) and give up 109.5 (second in the league) for a -36 scoring differential overall.

The Heat average 40.9 rebounds per game (28th in the league) compared to the 41.9 of their opponents.

Miami connects on 11.7 three-pointers per game (17th in the league), 1.5 fewer than its opponents (13.2). It is shooting 33.8% from beyond the arc (28th in the NBA) while allowing opponents to shoot 36.9%.

The Heat average 109.6 points per 100 possessions on offense (26th in the league), and allow 110 points per 100 possessions (seventh in the NBA).

The Heat have been better offensively at home, where they average 110.5 points per game, compared to on the road, where they average 107.5 per game. Defensively, they are slightly better when playing at home, where they allow 109.2 points per game, versus on the road, where they let their opponents to average 109.9 per game.

Knicks Stats & Insights

The Knicks’ +202 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 2.8 points per game) is a result of putting up 115.4 points per game (13th in NBA) while allowing 112.6 per outing (10th in league).

The 46.8 rebounds per game New York accumulates rank third in the league, 4.3 more than the 42.5 its opponents collect.

The Knicks connect on 12.4 three-pointers per game (12th in the league) at a 34.9% rate (22nd in NBA), compared to the 12.9 their opponents make, shooting 34.9% from beyond the arc.

The Knicks put up 114.4 points per 100 possessions (sixth in league), while conceding 111.2 points per 100 possessions (11th in NBA).

In 2022-23 New York is averaging 2.5 more points per game at home (116.6) than away (114.1).

Heat Key Players to Watch

Adebayo puts up 21.1 points and 9.4 rebounds per game, with 3.3 assists.

Jimmy Butler contributes with 6.1 boards and 5.1 assists per game in addition to his 22.7 PPG scoring average.

Tyler Herro makes more threes per game than any other (active) member of the Heat, knocking down shots from beyond the arc at a clip of three per contest.

Butler averages 1.9 steals per game, while Adebayo has 0.9 blocks per contest.

Knicks Key Players to Watch

Randle has been among the team’s best in both scoring (25.6 points per game) and rebounding (10.2 rebounds per game) while adding 4.1 assists per contest.

The Knicks have gotten 23.8 points, 6.2 assists and 3.5 rebounds out of Jalen Brunson this season.

Randle hits 2.9 threes per game.

The Knicks’ defensive efforts get a lift from Josh Hart’s 1.1 steals and Mitchell Robinson’s 1.6 blocks per game.