Tuesday, March 5, 2024

NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 3/23/23: How to Bet the Cavaliers vs. Nets Rematch

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Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there’s just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night — spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where can we identify value in tonight’s NBA odds?

(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)

Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets

Cleveland Cavaliers Team Total Points: Over 111.5 (-110)
Over 219.5 (-110)

Since the All-Star break, the Cleveland Cavaliers are 8-5 overall on the back of 114.2 points per game, which has led to a 69.2% over rate across those 13 matchups.

That includes a 115-109 win over the Brooklyn Nets two days ago in Brooklyn.

The post-break numbers for the Nets are less impressive, including a 5-9 record, 110.3 points per game, and a 35.7% over rate.

But putting current rotations into a blender, we see a plus offense (Cleveland) up against a weak defense (Brooklyn), and that’s doing enough to drive this game to an over from my model’s perspective.

Primarily, I like the Cavs to get over 111.5 themselves and have more concerns about the Nets’ offense.

That being said, this game has a projected output of 224.4 in my model (the game two days ago scored 224 total), so I’m fine with the full game over but would rather just take the Cavaliers’ total if given the chance.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Clippers

Over 232.5 (-110)
Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5 (-110)

There isn’t much to like on a four-game slate with some key injuries, but the nightcap looks appealing, too.

The Thunder, the 8 seed in the Western Conference, can finish in a lot of different slots, so they need to stay competitive.

The Los Angeles Clippers are the 5 seed right now and are just half a game back from moving up to the 4 seed — but are without Paul George for multiple weeks.

We have a small sample with their splits with Kawhi Leonard and Russell Westbrook yet no George; their relevant net rating is a -2.8 in that split, however.

OKC is pretty healthy and enters the game with a better net rating (+1.8). My model still has the Clippers favored due to home-court and other tweaks, but 4.5 is a lot of points. numberFire’s model sees Oklahoma City as 58.5% likely to cover.

My model also likes the over and projects a total of 236.3.

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