Thursday, November 30, 2023

NBA Betting Insights: Embiid Jumps Jokic as MVP Odds Leader

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The NBA MVP race is down to a three-horse sprint, with Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers owning the top odds ahead of Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Jokic and Embiid have flip-flopped their odds over the last week, which has seen Jokic go from -210 to +275, while the 76ers’ big man was bet down from +275 to -210BetMGM Sportsbook Insights: Regular Season MVP

  • Highest Ticket%: Luka Doncic 16.0%
  • Highest Handle%: Nikola Jokic 27.1%
  • Biggest Liability: Luka Doncic
  • Odds Leader: Joel Embiid -210

If you’re wondering why there’s been sizable line movement in the NBA MVP conversation over the last week, look no further than the performances that Embiid has continued to put forward. The former Kansas Jayhawk has scored 36, 38, 31, and 37 in four games since March 15.

There were a lot of questions about what Embiid would have to do to overtake Jokic as the favorite. With Embiid’s big numbers and the overall success the 76ers have had, in addition to the Denver Nuggets faltering of late, it’s opened the door for the Sixer to jump out in front.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has remained in the conversation but is a longshot compared to Jokic and Embiid at +450. But let’s not overlook the Greek Freak’s sizable line movement, where he’s been bet down from +700 to +450

Jokic has continued to own the second-highest ticket and highest handle percentage. The Denver superstar center has compiled 15.5% of tickets for 27.1% of the handle. With nearly double the handle, Jokic has seen sizable bets come his way to three-peat as NBA MVP. 

Even with Embiid charging up the ranks and being the odds-on favorite, he has yet to generate the same type of money backing him that Jokic has. Embiid has collected 13% of tickets for 14.9% of the handle, which has him with the third-highest percentages

Luka Doncic opened the year in a tie with the shortest odds to win MVP at +500, but he’s fallen off and is a massive longshot at +50000. Still, Doncic is the book’s biggest liability for the award after he’s registered the highest ticket count at 16%, in addition to the second-highest handle at 16.9%

Thumbnail photo via Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

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