Tuesday, March 5, 2024

NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 2/10/24

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The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire’s NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

Our favorite picks are to come, but don’t forget to check out FanDuel’s Parlay Hub for other trending bets for all sports — including basketball.

Without further delay, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks

Thunder -2.5 (-110)

Two potential MVP candidates — and, in my opinion, should-be MVP favorites — will clash in Big D on Saturday afternoon. I can’t expect the Oklahoma City Thunder to lose this game on the road given equal rest.

The Dallas Mavericks got a nice primetime boost beating a New York Knicks squad without its four best players, but they’ve been the significantly worse team over each’s respective last 15 games. Dallas has an ugly -4.6 net rating in this stretch, and OKC’s +8.5 net rating is fifth-best in basketball during this time.

Particularly, the Mavs have let up the sixth-most fastbreak points in this stretch when set to face a young Thunder squad that likes to get out and run. OKC leads the NBA in points off turnovers (19.1) during the same period.

I expected the Thunder to be the public side, but 52% of the bets at FanDuel Sportsbook are behind the Mavericks. However, 64% of the money is behind OKC. We’ll ride with sharps and back the better team to win in convincing fashion.

San Antonio Spurs at Brooklyn Nets

Tre Jones Over 11.5 Points (+104)
Mikal Bridges Over 3.5 Assists (-124)

These two rebuilding clubs have a modest game total (232.5). Rather than take a stance for or against the offensive environment, I nabbed these props from inside of it.

Tre Jones only posted 10 points on Thursday against a stingy Orlando Magic defense, but he’s a solid bet at this number — especially at plus money. He averaged 11.9 points per game in January, and that’s up to 14.0 in February despite the clunker. The opposing Brooklyn Nets have also ceded the fourth-most points per game to opposing point guards (28.5) over the last 15 games.

On the other side, Mikal Bridges could tap into a bit of a playmaking role today. The San Antonio Spurs seem to force the ball out of wings’ hands, allowing the eighth-fewest points per game (19.2) but most assists per game (5.3) to opposing small forwards over their last 15. Bridges has cleared this mark in four straight games to start February, so Ben Simmons‘ insertion into the lineup hasn’t hurt his assist totals.

FanDuel Research has new NBA player projections, and they love both of these props. FDR (powered by numberFire) is projecting Jones for 12.6 points, and it’s projecting Bridges for 4.0 assists. We’ll take that.

Philadelphia 76ers at Washington Wizards

Wizards +4 (-106)
Tyrese Maxey Under 30.5 Points (-113)

Even I didn’t expect to back the Washington Wizards here after perusing the schedule last night, but they’ve got a great chance to win at home.

The Philadelphia 76ers have fallen apart in Joel Embiid‘s absence, amassing a -3.3 net rating over their last 15 games. Looking at the flip side, the Wiz have a -5.0 net rating in this same stretch that’s a stark improvement from their season-long mark (-8.7).

These teams have different public perception based on the entire year, but they’re very similar lately, and Washington is at home. I’m using that explanation to fade the 67% of tickets and 73% of money on Philadelphia at FanDuel today.

If the Wizards do keep things tight (or win), they’ll likely have kept Tyrese Maxey in check. Don’t discount their ability to do so. Washington is actually allowing the fewest points per game to floor generals (19.2) over every team’s respective last 15 games.

FDR has Maxey projected at just 24.1 points — well below this mark. Washington’s reputation as a poor defense — but not positionally — might have juiced the emerging guard’s line to a place of extreme value.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors

Raptors Team Total Under 110.5 (-106)
Darius Garland Over 5.5 Assists (+102)

Potentially down RJ Barrett (knee), the Toronto Raptors figure to struggle scoring in this affair.

Over every team’s last 15 games, no squad has a better defensive rating than the Cleveland Cavaliers (105.9). It’s not as if Toronto’s rebuilding offense (111.9 rating in the same period) has been lighting it up with or without Barrett, either.

This is also a pace down spot for the Raps. They’re 16th in pace factor to Cleveland’s 20th. Though numberFire’s model recommends a full-game under here, I’m wary of Toronto’s leaky defense (121.4 DRtg in last 15) to just take their team total, which the model projects at just 104.9 points before Barrett’s status is finalized.

On Cleveland’s side, I noticed this prop perusing the assist market. Darius Garland has logged at least 28 minutes in three straight games and is finally approaching a full role once more, so I think this prop for dimes is just a bit too low.

Garland averages 6.4 assists per 36 in general, and the Raptors have allowed the second-most assists per game to point guards (9.9) over their last 15 games.

FanDuel Research has Garland projected for 6.5 assists in 29.9 minutes on Saturday, so “plus chicken” on the over is a great proposition.

Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors

Warriors ML (+116)
Stephen Curry Over 37.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-115)

Even as someone who loves net ratings in small samples, the Phoenix Suns‘ is incredibly bloated.

I’m not a buyer that they’ve turned a corner as much as they’ve recently faced the Nets, Wizards, Utah Jazz, Atlanta Hawks, and Milwaukee Bucks missing two of their big three. Phoenix’s +9.1 net rating over their last 15 games might even say less than the Golden State Warriors‘ improved +2.6 rating when they’ve gone through the healthy Bucks, Sacramento Kings, and Los Angeles Lakers in the stretch.

As a result, in tonight’s featured matchup on national TV, I’ll take the Dubs at home. Once again, I’m fading the 68% of bets and 66% of the handle on Phoenix at FanDuel.

That might be because the Suns have had issues defending point guards, and the league’s premier floor general will face them tonight. Stephen Curry has to be licking his chops to face a Suns defense allowing the 9th-most points and 11th-most assists to point guards over the last 15 games, and Curry (4.65 rebounds per 36 minutes) always has a unique ability to add on the glass from the position.

FanDuel Research has Curry projected for 28.2 points, 6.1 assists, and 5.1 rebounds in tonight’s game. That totals 39.4 PRA. If the Dubs end up snagging the win, a huge night from Steph seems like a prerequisite.

Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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