Tuesday, November 28, 2023

NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 11/19/23

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The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire’s NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets

Nets +3.5 (-110)
Cameron Johnson Over 22.5 Points and Rebounds (-106)

No, your eyes aren’t deceiving you. The mighty Philadelphia 76ers are 3.5-point favorites over the Brooklyn Nets, and there’s a good reason why.

Philly, at full health, has a +7.7 net rating (third in the NBA), but Brooklyn can nearly match that in their current floor situation. They’ve ramped Nicolas Claxton back to full speed, and the Nets have a +6.9 net rating when Claxton is on the floor this season. Remember, this team was operating largely without a center in his stead.

Plus, this has been a profitable spot all year. Brooklyn is 5-0-1 against the spread (ATS) at home, which checks out for one of the youngest teams in the NBA.

As the Sixers continue to shuffle pieces and figure out their best power forward, it’s shown in their opposition’s results. Opposing power forwards are scoring the ninth-most points (25.8) and rebounds (11.4) per game against Philadelphia, which brings Brooklyn’s Cameron Johnson into the fold.

numberFire’s model is projecting the Nets to cover a one-possession game 61.4% of the time in this spot, and its player projections also forecasting Johnson for 23.9 combined points and rebounds.

Denver Nuggets at Cleveland Cavaliers

Cavaliers ML (+120)
Aaron Gordon Under 21.5 Points at Rebounds (-113)

The Denver Nuggets are human after all.

Still operating without Jamal Murray, the Nuggets have dropped their last four against the spread. With a tight margin projected tonight against the Cleveland Cavaliers, a fifth straight contest could mean another loss on the road tonight for the defending champions.

The Cavs have been home since Friday with equal rest entering this one, but the recent splits between these two teams are largely accounted for by this game’s location. Denver (+4.2 net rating) just edges out Cleveland (+2.5) over the course of each’s last five contests.

To no one’s surprise, 85% of the tickets and 90% of the handle are on the Nuggets to cover three points on the spread tonight, but this line hasn’t budged all of Sunday morning. FanDuel is taking a stand with Cleveland tonight. numberFire likes Cleveland to win tonight’s game 56.0% of the time.

If Denver loses, it might be due to an off night for Aaron Gordon in a brutal matchup with Evan Mobley defensively. Opposing power forwards are posting the fifth-fewest points (20.3) and seventh-fewest rebounds (9.5) per game against the Cavs.

Gordon’s rebounding has spiked to 8.3 per game in November behind some favorable matchups, but with no changes to his frontcourt, expect that to drop closer to his 2022-23 average (6.3) before long.

Boston Celtics at Memphis Grizzlies

Celtics Team Total Over 116.5 (-102)

The Memphis Grizzlies had to erase an enormous deficit to win their third game of the season last night against the San Antonio Spurs, and now, they’ll have to face the NBA’s best team.

Of course, the Boston Celtics have destroyed several poor teams already in 2023-24 and sport the league’s best net rating (+12.7) by a country mile. I’m a bit wary of the 84% of bets and 95% of tickets on the C’s in this spot, but their offense should absolutely pummel the Grizz at a minimum.

Memphis has waffled to a 119.8 defensive rating with Marcus Smart off the floor this season, and they still play at the seventh-fastest pace factor (103.6) in the league.

It’s quite interesting this total is so low in a projected blowout. If a “look ahead” spot is projected, it likely handicaps the Boston D more than Boston’s elite offense, and their injury report is fairly clean with just Jaylen Brown (adductor) questionable.

Boston’s topped 114 points in 9 of their last 11 games; I have full faith that they’ll be within striking distance here against a waffling Memphis D.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers

Under 225.0 (-110)

Quietly, these have been two of the best defenses in basketball recently.

The Oklahoma City Thunder — fresh off an overtime win in San Francisco on Saturday — have the best defensive rating in the league over their last five games (101.9), and the injury-plagued Portland Trail Blazers (112.9) aren’t far behind in a tie for 10th.

This also isn’t the pace matchup it has been in recent seasons for these two ex-tankers. OKC (6th) still plays pretty quick, the Blazers (tied for 22nd) have plummeted down the pace rankings as they’re down their top three point guards.

In the last five games, Portland’s 103.6 offensive rating is also the worst in the league, which is how they’ve hit the under in 7 of 12 games this season. Four of their five home games have fallen under, too. The tired legs of the Thunder will help, but don’t expect this motley crew to become the Mike D’Antoni Phoenix Suns overnight.

Though numberFire’s model (226.0 points) doesn’t have the same verdict, I like siding with the declining, glacial Blazers playing another ugly home game.

Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers

Rockets +5.5 (-110)
Jabari Smith Jr. Over 1.5 Threes (+146)

I feel like I ask this question every Sunday night, but who are the Los Angeles Lakers to lay 5.5 points against hardly anyone? Especially here?

The Lakers are 20th in net rating this season (-2.0), and before the Purple and Gold Mafia chimes onto my Twitter account, yes, that number has been much better over their last five games (+6.6). Still, you need to take into account tonight’s opponent: the upstart Houston Rockets.

Even if you want to play within the Lakers’ best sample, Houston has a stellar +11.7 net rating in their last five games with a full-season mark (+4.0) that much better supports their recent trend.

The public, whether supporting the Lakers or blindly fading the Rockets after a narrow loss to the Los Angeles Clippers, has sided with L.A. for 55% of the tickets on FanDuel Sportsbook for this one, but 59% of the money is on Houston. Pros like the road ‘dog, and it’s easy to see why.

L.A.’s struggles defensively have come most notably to fours — a theme of today’s article. Interestingly, they’re allowing the third-most threes per game (3.0) to opposing power forward, which opened my eyes to this great prop with Jabari Smith.

Smith is attempting 4.8 threes per game this year, canning 1.7 of them for a decent 35.8% clip. He’s just been on a cold spell recently, missing 8 of his last 10 tries. This sublime matchup could turn his shot around, and the plus chicken here at +146 is phenomenal value for a sub-one-unit flier to find out.

Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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