Wednesday, February 21, 2024

NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 2/11/24

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The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire’s NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

Our favorite picks are to come, but don’t forget to check out FanDuel’s Parlay Hub for other trending bets for all sports — including basketball.

Without further delay, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Boston Celtics at Miami Heat

Under 226 (-108)
Jrue Holiday Over 4.5 Rebounds (-132)

The high-profile rivalry has become a pre-Super Bowl staple for the NBA, and this rematch of last year’s East finals will do.

These two teams are ripe for an under when facing each other. The 253 combined points in their last contest on January 25th was thanks exclusively to the Boston Celtics‘ absurd shooting splits. They shot 63.7% from the field and 55.8% from three.

However, by defensive rating, the Celtics are the fourth-best defense in the NBA over the last 15 games for each team (111.2), and the Miami Heat (111.8) aren’t far behind. The average pace for these teams during the same period is 98.0, as well. That would rank ninth-worst in the NBA for an individual team.

That’s why numberFire’s model loves the under here. It projects it to cash 67.2% of the time versus these 51.9% implied odds, making for the best value wager of the day.

Misses leading to an under should also lead to extra rebounding chances, and Jrue Holiday actually has a great matchup for boards today. In the past 15 games, Miami allows the fourth-most rebounds per game (6.5) to point guards. Holiday, a plus rebounder for the position, averages 6.5 per 36 minutes on his own.

FanDuel Research’s brand-new, awesome NBA player projections have Holiday pegged to snag 5.6 rebounds on Sunday — well clear of this prop. Don’t be afraid to drink some juice.

Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder

Kings +3.5 (-110)
Kevin Huerter Over 11.5 Points (-115)

Lately, the Sacramento Kings and Oklahoma City Thunder just aren’t that far apart as basketball clubs. I’ll take the basket cushion with Sacramento.

In their respective last 15 games, OKC has a +1.9 net rating to Sacramento’s +1.6. It also helps that the Kings travel well, holding the 11th-best road net rating in the NBA (+0.1) during this same time period.

There’s also a rest discrepancy here. The Thunder played (and lost) yesterday in Dallas, and the Kings have been resting since the start of the fourth quarter on Friday after they waxed the Denver Nuggets with Nikola Jokic in the lineup.

Finding props in either of these games is pretty difficult; all four of these teams have been playing solid defense lately. That said, the Thunder are allowing the 11th-most threes and 15th-most points per game to opposing shooting guards over their past 15 contests, so this line for Kevin Huerter is pretty interesting.

This could be as simple of a bet as whether or not Huerter is benched late in this one. Overall, K.H. averages 15.8 points per 36 minutes this season and has cleared this prop in eight of the last nine games he’s been allotted at least 30 minutes. Add in a slight positive matchup, and the argument is pretty ironclad.

FDR projections have Huerter slotted for 14.2 points in 30.0 minutes. Even with the risk of getting benched for Malik Monk known, I have to take it. It could easily be Monk, Keegan Murray, or Harrison Barnes that finds themselves on the pine depending on how Mike Brown will approach this matchup against a small OKC unit.

Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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