Monday, March 4, 2024

NBA futures betting: How trade deadline deals impacted championship odds | Sporting News

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There were 15 deals executed prior to Thursday’s trade deadline involving nearly 40 players, and although many of the moves were made for financial reasons or to clear roster spots, there were still some made that will impact the NBA title race. 

Let’s take a look at the top 10 most impactful moves and how they affect NBA futures odds as we head toward the All-Star break. 

Trade deadline deals with most impact on NBA futures odds

Here’s our breakdown of the most impactful NBA trade deadline deals on championship odds, as well as their live odds from BetMGM.

Related: Top NBA betting sites | Best NBA betting promos and bonuses

Knicks get Bogdanovic, Burks from Pistons

Full trade: Pistons get Quentin Grimes, Evan Fournier, Malachi Flynn, Ryan Arciadiocono, two second-rounders; Knicks get Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks

New York gets its reinforcements and only had to pay a minimal price, sending Detroit Fournier’s valuable expiring contract and Quentin Grimes, a young guard who should immediately join the guard rotation that includes Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey and Marcus Sasser.

The Knicks will have to play a different way over the next month-plus with forwards Julius Randle and OG Anunoby sidelined with significant injuries. The addition of Bogdanovic and Burks will add a pair of scorers to the mix to take some pressure off Jalen Brunson and help better spread the floor. 

They’re looking to avoid Eastern Conference favorite Boston’s side of the bracket by moving up to at least the No. 3 seed, so this move will help them stay afloat and improve their chances of finishing ahead of either Cleveland or Milwaukee in the standings. New York is now to win the Eastern Conference, the third-best odds behind the Celtics and is now to win the title, sixth-best alongside OKC.


PJ Washington, Daniel Gafford to Mavs

Trade 1: Hornets get Grant Williams, Seth Curry, 2027 1st-rounder; Mavs get PJ Washington

Trade 2: Wizards get 2024 first-round pick and Richaun Holmes; Mavs get Daniel Gafford

Williams was brought in to supply defense and experience but struggled to make a significant impact, averaging 8.1 points per game. He’ll now play a reserve role in Charlotte behind Miles Bridges and bring a veteran influence for Charlotte. Curry only averaged 4.3 points and hadn’t played in February, so the Mavs moved on from the shooter, who was born in the Queen City and makes a homecoming to play mentor for the Hornets young guards.

Washington is the big draw, arriving to strengthen the Dallas frontcourt as a stretch-four that isn’t the defender Williams is but can block some shots and is a far more consistent offensive player, exploding for 43 points off the bench as recently as Jan. 27. 

Dallas also acquired a potential starting center in Gafford from the Wizards, flipping them little-used backup Holmes and a first-rounder, which shows you how committed they are to winning this season.

Gafford will likely serve in a platoon in the middle with rookie Dereck Lively, and since Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell are also around in addition to the newly acquired Washington, the Mavs have addressed their greatest need.

The Mavs are to win the West, to win the title, and in a bet that offers pretty good value after these moves, they’re to win the Southwest behind favored New Orleans. At 29-23 after winning at the Knicks on Thursday, Dallas is just 1.5 games behind the Pelicans.


Suns add Royce O’Neale

Full trade: Nets get Keita Bates-Diop, Jordan Goodwin and three second-round picks; Suns get Royce O’Neale and David Roddy; Grizzlies get Chimezie Metu, Yuta Watanabe and a 2026 pick swap

Although Bates-Diop, Goodwin, Metu and Watanabe all have contributed at points this season, Phoenix moved off all of them to land O’Neale, a valuable 3-and-D guy who has plenty of experience as a glue guy. Grayson Allen, Eric Gordon and backup center Drew Eubanks will stick in the rotation, but Finney-Smith allows Durant to play some at the five when they look to spell Jusuf Nurkic, adding to the Suns’ versatility. Moving four players for two also affords them some open roster spots to add another piece in the buyout market.

The Suns are to win the Pacific Division besides trailing the Clippers by only 4.5 games with over 30 to play, so that offers some value since they should only improve as their core continues to gel with more experience playing together. Phoenix is to win the West and to win the NBA title.


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Gordon Hayward to OKC

Full trade: Hornets get Tre Mann, Davis Bertans, Vasilije Micic and draft compensation; Thunder get Gordon Hayward

The Hornets were ready to move on from Hayward, so OKC will pick him up to add a veteran playmaking wing to its mix, dealing a 23-year-old point guard that wasn’t seeing much action. Hayward hasn’t played since late December but should be ready to return to action soon.

He’ll provide insurance behind Josh Giddey and Luguentz Dort on the wing, adding a veteran presence to take some pressure off Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The 33-year-old is no longer a No. 1 or All-Star, but he’s shown the ability to go on spurts and adds another shooter to the mix to finish games.

Despite being tied with Denver and Minnesota in the loss column with 16 entering Friday’s games, the Thunder are to win the Northwest Division since the defending champion Nuggets are favored (). OKC is to win the West and to win their first championship.


Celtics add Xavier Tillman

Full trade: Grizzlies get Lamar Stevens and 2nd-round pick; Celtics get Xavier Tillman 

The Celtics are the odds on favorite to win the East () and the NBA Finals (), but took the opportunity to cash in on Memphis’ fire sale to add Tillman. He’s undersized for a center but is a big body in the post, a willing defender and can step out and hit the 3-ball.


Buddy Hield, Cam Payne join 76ers, Pat Bev to Milwaukee

Trade 1: Pacers get Marcus Morris, Sr., Furkan Korkmaz, three second-rounders; 76ers get Buddy Hield

Trade 2: 76ers get Cam Payne and second-rounder; Bucks get Patrick Beverley

Hield’s 3-point prowess makes him a great weapon for the 76ers, who could use another perimeter threat when and if Joel Embiid returns from his knee injury. If that’s in April, there’s still enough time for the 76ers to finish top-six in the East, stay out of the play-in and make a run at a championship.

Philadelphia is 1-7 over its last eight and has seen its odds dip to to win the East and to win a title, but you have to be an optimist and be a big fan of modern medicine and physical therapy to partake. Hield’s arrival should help.

The Sixers also added another shooter in Payne, apparently feeling he could better suit their survival mode more than Beverley. They’re also rumored to be a likely destination for Philly native Kyle Lowry, who is being bought out by the Hornets after Miami moved him in acquiring Terry Rozier late last month.


For the Bucks, it was an easy decision for Doc Rivers to reach out and pick up someone who could set a better tone as an on-ball defender, even if only in a backup role. The Bucks are to win the Central, falling behind favored Cleveland (). They’re still to win the East and to figure out how to defend well enough to win a championship. Beverley will aid that cause.


T’Wolves add Monte Morris

Full trade: Timberwolves get Monte Morris; Pistons get Shake Milton, Troy Brown Jr. and a 2030 second-round pick

The Timberwolves made a small tweak, adding a veteran backup point guard in Morris, who has experience in the playoffs and offers great insurance for when Mike Conley needs to sit. Morris hasn’t played much this season due to a quad issue, but saw action in a few games for the Pistons and hasn’t shot it well, but should find a groove and was acquired for Milton and Brown, who weren’t seeing much action.

Minnesota is to win the Northwest, to take the West and to win the championship.


Dinwiddie traded to Raptors, could end up with Lakers

Full trade: Raptors get Spencer Dinwiddie (later waived); Nets Dennis Schroder and Thad Young

Schroder is coming on board for Brooklyn, who had grown dispirited with Dinwiddie and wanted a better on-ball defender to make a run at the play-in since it is currently in 11th and looking to chase down Atlanta.

Toronto is waiving Dinwiddie, who will be one of the top targets in the buyout market. He was spotted talking to Mavs owner Mark Cuban at Madison Square Garden on Thursday and is reportedly coveted by the Lakers, who badly use the LA native, having not struck a deadline deal. The Lakers are to win the West and to win the NBA title.


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