Monday, March 4, 2024

NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jayson Tatum, Darius Garland, Brandon Miller (Tuesday, Nov. 28)

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A Celtics victory tonight along with some point differential help gets them into the knockout round of the In-Season Tournament. They are double digit favorites at home against the Bulls and Jayson Tatum will likely lead the way.

The Hawks will be in Cleveland to battle the Cavs and both teams have a chance at claiming a spot in the next round. One thing that we know for sure is the pace will be up with the Hawks being involved. Darius Garland may take advantage.

The Hornets also have a chance to advance but will need help. They will also likely be without LaMelo Ball tonight. That means Brandon Miller will have to add some scoring punch in his place.

Let’s break it down with my top NBA player prop bets tonight.

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Jayson Tatum is averaging just over 28 points per game. He already has eight 30-point games this season and two more games with at least 27 points. Tonight, he faces a Bulls team that is 21st in Defensive Rating. He has scored at least 26 points in each of the last four meetings against the Bulls, including two games with 30 points or more.

Tatum may attack the Bulls beyond the arc tonight. He has made four 3s in three of the last four meetings and knocked down three in the other. Additionally, the Bulls are allowing 14.1 3s per game, the fourth-most in the NBA.

With that in mind, I lean towards the over 28.5 points on Tatum tonight. However, he should also be able to attack the glass tonight. He is averaging nine rebounds per game this season and he has had at least eight in each of the last four meetings, including two with at least 11 rebounds.

The Bulls are allowing the third-most rebounds per game overall and the fifth-most rebounds per game to power forwards, per FantasyPros.

Tatum will be at the four tonight because Kristaps Porzingis is out. With Porzingis out of the lineup on Sunday, Tatum had 34 points and nine rebounds. He has also cleared this number in three of the four games against Chicago. I expect that trend to continue tonight.

Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 38.5 Points + Rebounds (-105 at DraftKings)

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Darius Garland has been trying to round into form after starting the season with an injury. He has averaged 21 points in each of the last two years. His scoring is down slightly a little bit at 19.4 per game this year. However, he is shooting 48.5% from the field and 51.8% at home thus far.

Garland is averaging 20.3 points per game at home, which would clear this line, and he scored 24 against the Raptors on Sunday. Tonight, he gets the Hawks, who he has torched of late. Garland averaged 28.7 points per game in three meetings against the Hawks last season, including a game with 33 points.

This game features two of the NBA’s best backcourts with Garland and Donovan Mitchell going against Trae Young and DeJounte Murray. Mitchell has been struggling of late, but he will still likely draw Murray, the better defender of the two.

I love Garland going against Young, and with Jalen Johnson out he may see a lot of pick-and-rolls defended by Young and Saddiq Bey, another bad defender.

Garland has hit this line in four of his last six games and he left one early due to injury. He scored 25 points in three of those games. Additionally, the Hawks are 27th in scoring defense, 24th in defense, and third in pace.

These factors should lead to a big game for Garland and you can take for 25 points at +240 on FanDuel.

Pick: Darius Garland Over 19.5 Points (-115 at FanDuel)

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The Knicks have one of the stingiest defenses in the NBA. They are second in scoring defense and sixth in defensive rating.

However, Brandon Miller has not cared about any of that. On November 12th, Brandon Miller scored 11 points in just 10 minutes, but he had to leave the game due to injury. Six days later, he finished the job with 29 points, knocking down five 3s in the process.

Miller is shooting 71.4% from the field against the Knicks this season. Do I expect that to continue tonight? No. But he is shooting 47.2% and averaging 11.5 field goal attempts per game. An average game will put him in line to score 14 points and that is before accounting for the fact that LaMelo Ball is doubtful.

While Ball does create easier looks for Miller, if he is out, that frees up 20 field goal attempts and 25 points per game. Miles Bridges is back on the floor and played in the second meeting against the Knicks.

Terry Rozier also returned on Sunday. However, it is reasonable to assume that Miller will pick up some of Ball’s scoring, particularly in a matchup where he has already found success.

Miller has scored 15 points in three of his last four games. He had 20 points in two of them, the aforementioned game against the Knicks and on Sunday after Ball left the game against Orlando.

I like Miller for 20 points at +460 on FanDuel and if he is made available for 25 points later on, I will be interested in that as well.

Pick: Brandon Miller Over 13.5 Points (-115 at FanDuel)

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