Thursday, November 30, 2023

NFL Best Bets & Picks: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills, Week 11

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This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions, Week 11

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This matchup certainly looked more exciting when the NFL schedule was released in the preseason. This is a rematch from a game played at New York in Week 1. In what was supposed to be a marquee matchup between Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers, an Achilles’ injury on the third offensive play for the Jets left them without their franchise quarterback. As the game went on, Josh Allen threw three interceptions while Zach Wilson threw one of his rare touchdowns this season. Ultimately, the game went to overtime. Xavier Gipson returned a punt for a touchdown, giving the Jets an improbable 22-16 win. As the season continued, both teams have failed to meet preseason expectations. Both of these squads have five losses and need this win in the hopes of remaining in the AFC playoff hunt.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills Betting Odds for Week 11

The Bills are 6.5-point home favorites while this game has an over/under total of 40.These odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. To date, the Jets are averaging 16 points, and they are giving up 19 points per contest. Meanwhile, Buffalo has scored an average of 26.1  points, while allowing 18  per game.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills Betting Picks This Week

The Bills come into this game having lost four of their last six contests. Their only victories during that time were one-score home wins against the Giants and the Buccaneers.  On offense, Buffalo hasn’t scored more than 25 points in a game since Week 4. They have excellent talent on that side of the ball, but they aren’t consistently sustaining drives while also making numerous mental errors. Josh Allen is not playing at the elite level we have come to expect. Defensively, this team is reeling from a rash of injuries at each level. Right now, they are not playing well against the run or the pass. 

Meanwhile, the Jets stubbornly chose to let Zach Wilson remain as their starting quarterback. Despite favorable matchups the last three weeks, they are averaging 10 points per game. Opposing defenses only need to game plan to stop RB Breece Hall, and there is little chance the New York offense will be effective. Unfortunately, the Jets are wasting a season for their championship-level defense. This unit is excellent against the run and pass while also having a strong pass rush. All of these factors for both teams make it difficult to expect much scoring. Even though the betting total is at 40, it seems probable these teams will struggle to put up 37 points. With this expected to be a low-scoinrg game, combined with the fact the Bills would not have covered a 6.5 spread in any of their last six games, it would appear unlikely that happens in this divisional rematch. A case can easily be made for the Jets winning this game outright, and the moneyline is +245 for that outcome on DraftKings Sportsbook.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills Best Bet: Under 40.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills Prediction

Not only are the Bills in a major slump, but they are coming off a short week after playing this past Monday. It’s not technical analysis, but Buffalo doesn’t appear to be handling adversity well. The mental errors on offense along with the undermanned defense are a terrible combination of factors. Despite the Jets being terrible on offense, Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson could do enough for the Jets to have intermittent success moving the football. The best unit in this game is easily the Jets defense. They will be the difference. I predict the Jets win this game, 15-13

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