Elijah Mitchell 5+ rushing attempts
Let’s kick things off with one of the best +EV plays from THE BLITZ. Derek Carty’s projections have been elite all year hitting at nearly 20% ROI on over 200 plays in prime-time games. That is not an easy thing to do in games with a lot of liquidity.
San Francisco 49ers running back Elijah Mitchell is a forgotten name in the mix of all the talent on the roster. He isn’t a nobody and gets a handful of carries per game as he spells Christain McCaffrey or gets the late closing carries.
The No. 2 is paying a whopping +1,000 for just five carries. THE BLITZ has him at 3.2 carries while his 1.5 rush attempt total is implying 1.5ish at -115 odds for the Over.
There are plenty of ways to reach this small total that can pad the old account. Mitchell could mix in for carries here and there as CMC does come out because of his high usage. Over his first nine games of the year, he hit the five-carry mark in four games before hitting the shelf.
Mitchell could see an uptick in volume thanks to that late neck injury McCaffrey suffered in the Championship game. It’s tough to predict injuries, but if CMC were to miss any snaps, this +1,000 would be a lay-up.
Another angle here is with Mitchell getting the possible close-out carries. If he does this and moves the pile vs. a poor Kansas City Chiefs rush defense, there could be five carries just in the fourth quarter alone.
Mitchell had three close-out carries vs. Detroit (thanks to the CMC neck injury). He got the late carries in Week 17 vs. Washington and the Niners are happy to give the ball to someone other than CMC late.
If he can get two or three regular scripted carries and gets the close-out duties, cash that +1,000. Note: when I started handicapping the Elijah Mitchell odds, the price was +1,600 at bet365 and it moved significantly. I still like the Over at +750 or better.
Elijah Mitchell prop: 5+ rushing attempts (+1,000 at Caesars)
Deebo Samuel 6+ receptions
Now that I got the long shot out of the way, let’s focus our volume attention somewhere else.
Sometimes when you hear people talk about a bet, it piques the interest and you have to go dig into the numbers. That’s where I am with the Deebo Samuel odds and 6+ receptions for +150. The hat-tip belongs to John Hyslop who was on Before You Bet with Joe Osborne mentioning the plus-money prop.
First off, Deebo is healthy and will be the gadget player that he has been for multiple seasons with this team. He has battled injuries and the two-week run here is giving him his best bill of health in a while. He has time to get over the recent shoulder injury he picked up in the Divisional Round.
Bettors saw how Kyle Shanahan wanted to get the ball in his hands and let him pick up YAC. He had eight grabs on nine targets vs. the Lions and many of those catches were near the line of scrimmage.
Samuel finished the Conference Championship Round with the lowest % of team air yards of all pass catchers at 16.3% despite leading his team in receiving yards. He also led all pass catchers two weeks ago in YAC per reception at 7.8 yards per grab. It worked for the Niners then and it will work for them against a defense that is tough to pass downfield against.
He can line up all over the field and should see plenty of short, high catch-rate targets, especially early as Brock Purdy shakes off his Super Bowl nerves.
If the 49ers go with a short passing attack vs. this very good secondary, Deebo will be the biggest benefactor and could see nine or more targets again.
Deebo Samuel prop: 6+ receptions (+150 at bet365)
I’ve already gone all-in on the George Kittle odds at Over 20.5 yards for his longest reception, and that market has started to head north with bet365 moving to 21.5.
It’s still two yards shorter than it was vs. Detroit two weeks ago, and this a tight end who leads his position by a significant margin in yards per catch thanks to consistently pulling in long gains.
Over his last 12 games, he has long receptions of 28, 32, 18, 58, 35, 44, 32, 11, 24, 66, 34, and 28 yards. That’s a solid 10-2 to the Over on his longest reception prop.
So how can I turn this into a Milestone? Well, bet365 has longest reception Milestones in increments of 10 yards. Kittle is paying +235 for 30+ yards, +650 for 40+ yards, and +1,500 for 50+ yards.
Looking back on those 12 games, Kittle — who leads all TEs in deep targets per game — has hit the 30-yard prop in seven of the 12 games (95% ROI), the 40-yard prop three times (87.5% ROI), and the 50-yard prop twice for an ROI of 167%.
It’s tough to say no to all of those numbers, and that means it’s ladder time.
I already have a unit on Over 20.5 in the George Kittle props, so I want to make sure that if I win that, it covers this three-rung ladder to 50+ yards. That works out to this:
- Over 30.5 yards longest reception at +235 for 0.55 units to win 1.24 units
- Over 40.5 yards longest reception at +650 for 0.30 units to win 1.95 units
- Over 50.5 yards longest reception at +1,500 for 0.15 units to win 2.25 units
Let’s cash a George Kittle longest reception ladder to wrap up a great NFL year!
George Kittle prop: Longest reception ladder (+235, +650, and +1,500 at bet365)
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