Monday, March 4, 2024

NFL Week 14 Odds and Betting Trends Against the Spread: Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts vs. Dak Prescott, and More

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We now have three months of data at our disposal — our feel for these teams is improving, but that also means sharp NFL Week 14 betting lines from the bookmakers. That said, there are some interesting trends developing in specific spots that can help guide you in building out the NFL betting card this week.

NFL Week 14 Odds and Betting Trends

All odds are from ESPN BET, and betting trends are from Inside Edge.

New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds

  • Spread
    Steelers -6
  • Moneyline
    Patriots +240, Steelers -290
  • Total
    30.5

The Patriots are the worst ATS team this season (2-10) and second-worst in terms of cashing over tickets (3-9).

Unders are 8-3 since the beginning of last season when the Steelers are favored (fourth-highest hit rate).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds

  • Spread
    Falcons -2.5
  • Moneyline
    Buccaneers +120, Falcons -140
  • Total
    39.5

The Bucs are 0-4 outright since the beginning of last season when getting a field goal or less.

The Falcons are the sixth-worst ATS team when favored since the beginning of last season (4-9).

Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears Odds

  • Spread
    Lions -3
  • Moneyline
    Lions -170, Bears +145
  • Total
    40.5

After losing seven of eight games against the Bears, the Lions have won each of the past three, totaling 102 points in the process.

MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor

At 4-7-3 ATS, the Bears are the fifth-worst home team against the spread since the beginning of last season.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds

  • Spread
    Colts -1
  • Moneyline
    Colts -115, Bengals -105
  • Total
    40.5

At 8-4, the Colts are the second-best ATS team this season and, since the beginning of last season, overs are 5-2 when they play a bottom-10 run defense (also second-best over that stretch).

After just three of their first seven games were decided by a single possession, the Bengals have seen four of their past five finish that way.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns Odds

  • Spread
    Browns -3
  • Moneyline
    Jaguars +140, Browns -165
  • Total
    30.5

The Jaguars are just 2-4 outright following an outright loss as a favorite. They were upset by the Bengals on Monday night to conclude Week 13.

The Browns are 8-4 ATS against bottom-10 passing offenses since the beginning of last season. QB Trevor Lawrence’s status is still TBD for the Jaguars entering this game, as of this writing.

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints Odds

  • Spread
    Saints -5.5
  • Moneyline
    Panthers +210, Saints -250
  • Total
    37.5

Since 2021, the Panthers are the worst ATS road team (8-15-1).

The Panthers swept this series last season, but the Saints won in Week 2 this season and won nine of the 11 meetings before the outlier 2022 results. During that 9-2 run, their average win came by 12.3 points.

Houston Texans vs. New York Jets Odds

  • Spread
    Texans -5.5
  • Moneyline
    Texans -275, Jets +225
  • Total
    32.5

Unders are 8-1 since the beginning of last season when the Texans are playing a bottom-10 passing offense. The Jets qualify as such in any metric.

Since the beginning of last season, 20 of 29 Jets games have gone under the number — tied for the highest rate in the league. Meanwhile, 18 of 29 Texans games have gone under.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds

  • Spread
    Ravens -7
  • Moneyline
    Rams +270, Ravens -340
  • Total
    40.5

The Rams have failed to cover six of the team’s last eight games against top-10 pass defenses.

MORE: NFL Defense Rankings 2023

Under tickets have come through in 10 of Baltimore’s past 14 home games.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds

  • Spread
    Vikings -3
  • Moneyline
    Vikings -155, Raiders +135
  • Total
    40.5

At 8-3-2 ATS, the Vikings are the NFL’s best road team against the spread since the beginning of last season.

The Raiders are the fifth-best ATS home team since the beginning of last season at 9-5.

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds

  • Spread
    49ers -10.5
  • Moneyline
    Seahawks +450, 49ers -600
  • Total
    46.5

The Seahawks have failed to cover five of their past seven games against top-10 run offenses.

Does it get any more even? The 49ers have won four straight over the Seahawks on the heels of Seattle rattling off four straight themselves. In the four meetings before that, each team had two wins apiece. Both teams even won an overtime game during that run.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds

  • Spread
    Chiefs -2.5
  • Moneyline
    Bills +120, Chiefs -140
  • Total
    47.5

Unders are 10-3 when the Bills play on the road since the beginning of last season.

When this game kicks off, 804 days will have passed since the last time the Chiefs lost consecutive games outright.

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds

  • Spread
    Chargers -3
  • Moneyline
    Broncos +130, Chargers -150
  • Total
    43.5

Unders are 10-4 since the beginning of last season when the Broncos are getting points (second-highest rate; only the Falcons cash these tickets at a higher rate).

The Chargers are 8-4 ATS following an outright win since the beginning of last season. They enter Week 14 coming off a thrilling 6-0 victory over the Patriots.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds

  • Spread
    Cowboys -3.5
  • Moneyline
    Eagles +145, Cowboys -170
  • Total
    52.5

The Eagles won the first meeting 28-23 in Week 9 and are looking for their first regular-season sweep of the Cowboys since the Michael Vick-led team of 2011.

MORE: NFL Standings

Since 2021, overs are 15-9 when the Cowboys play at home — easily the highest of the teams hosting games in Week 14.

Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins Odds

  • Spread
    Dolphins -14
  • Moneyline
    Titans +600, Dolphins -900
  • Total
    47.5

Unders are 11-4 when the Titans play on the road since the beginning of last season. They are tied for the second-highest hit rate.

Meanwhile, unders are 9-4 in Miami home games since the beginning of last season.

Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants Odds

  • Spread
    Packers -6.5
  • Moneyline
    Packers -290, Giants +240
  • Total
    36.5

Overs are 9-3 following a Packers win since the beginning of last season.

Unders are a league-best 16-4-2 in Giants home games since the beginning of 2021.

Our Betting Lines page has the freshest lines and promos to get BANG for your buck. PFN’s FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process! New to sports betting? Check out our guide on How to Bet on the NFL. Visit our Sports Betting Legal Tracker on how to bet legally in the U.S.

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