Vikings vs. Broncos Best Bets
Our betting analysts have dug in and found their Vikings vs. Broncos best bets. The Sunday Night Football picks range from a bet on the total and three player props, including two on Russell Wilson.
The Broncos under Sean Payton have implemented an ultra-conservative gameplan featuring Javonte Williams and the running game. Last week against the Bills, the Broncos rushed the ball 38 times despite not really having much success. It was obvious Russell Wilson was not going to pull the trigger and risk any type of turnover, especially in a close game. This game should be closely contested as well, so I expect a heavy dose of the ground attack once again.
The Vikings defense is now up to the eighth-best in the league according to DVOA. More specifically, since a Week 2 island game in which they were gashed by the Eagles on the ground, the Vikings have had the best rush defense in football. There have been 150 running back carries against Minnesota since that point, and the stout front of the Vikings has given up only 3.1 yards per attempt. I expect the Broncos offense to play behind the sticks for most of the night.
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In pace of play in the first half of games, the Vikings are 18th in seconds per play, while the Broncos are 28th. Without the score likely to be too lopsided one way or the other, I expect this type of tempo from both sides for the entirety of the game. Another primetime game, another under.
I wouldn’t play this any lower than 41.
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Justin Jefferson was ruled out for this weekend, and it feels like these odds haven’t caught up to that news. This line is also moving quickly since it was +320 earlier in the day on Saturday.
Here’s how Hockenson has fared in the two games that Josh Dobbs has played for the Vikings:
- Seven receptions for 69 yards (12 targets)
- 11 receptions for 134 yards, touchdown (15 targets)
The Broncos give up the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends, and Hockenson is first in targets, receptions and receiving yards among all TEs this season.
Pick: T.J. Hockenson ATD (+230)
While the Broncos may have started off the season rushing the ball at a normal rate, that has changed in recent weeks with the Broncos running at the highest rate in the league over the last three weeks. Javonte Williams has been healthy and a really solid RB, while Wilson has been just a solid game manager.
Over the last three weeks, the Broncos have won against tough opponents and Wilson has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in each game. With the Broncos defense coming to life, the need for Wilson to throw the ball 30+ times really isn’t there. Also, the Broncos are actually favored this week, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wilson only attempt somewhere in the mid-20s of passes.
I have Wilson projected for under 190 yards here and would hit this line all the way down to 198.5.
Pick: Russell Wilson Under 204.5 Passing Yards (-114)
By Ricky Henne
I’ve had relative success betting multiple TD passes for quarterbacks with plus-money payouts this year, and I’m willing to roll the dice here on Wilson.
He’s a far cry from his former self, but he hasn’t gotten the credit that he deserves this season. He has the fourth-highest passer rating in the league and is tied for third with 18 touchdown passes.
Wilson has thrown multiple TDs in six of nine games this season, including two in a row against the Bills and Chiefs. He’s also thrown for multiple touchdowns in four of five home games.
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Meanwhile, the Vikings have given up 14 passing touchdowns on the year, which is tied for eighth most in the league. However, I think that number would be even higher if not for the mediocre quarterbacks they’ve faced this season.
In five of their 10 games this year, the Vikings have faced Derek Carr/Jameis Winston, Taylor Heinicke, Jordan Love, Justin Fields/Tyson Bagent and Bryce Young. That’s hardly a murderer’s row, and they’ve given up four passing touchdowns in those five games. Meanwhile, they’ve given up 11 touchdown passes in their other five against Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield, Brock Purdy and Patrick Mahomes.
There are far safer bets to make for this game, but I like the potential payout enough to recommend giving it a shot. The juice varies wildly from +120 to +170, with most books offering it around this +145 number, so be sure to shop around.
Pick: Russell Wilson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+145)
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